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        Freddy Hutter, data analyst







        Freddy Hutter, data analyst



        thanx

        I've been sharing updates of my "Covid Fatalities Projections" since April 2020 and updates of my "Yukon Protocol" since Aug/2009.  The latter provides policymakers & the public with my calculations of each nation's obligation to meet their commitment to the UN's Green Climate Fund.  As re-affirmed at COP26-Glasgow-2021, the world's 114 least mature economies may draw upon the Fund to build green infrastructure.  Below is a list of the top 100 cumulative co2 emitters - calculated back to Year 1750 - and their annual assessments.

        TRENDLines Research began publishing real estate stats in 1989 and conducted political polling & election projections in several nations shortly thereafter.  In the coming months I hope to publish a variety of my other macro-economic models:  the TRENDLines Recession Indicator (USA, Canada & China), historic Realty Bubbles (USA, Canada, UK & Australia), Peak Oil projection, Gasoline & Oil Price Components, projected Sea Level by Year 2100 & projected co2 ppm by Year 2100.


        TRENDLines Research

        charts@

        facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch

        twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa

        112 Deep Bay Marina
        Box 191 Bowser BC Canada V0R1G0
        (250) 918-5325
        from  canada, eh!
        TRENDLines Research  ...   providing macro-economic charts & guidance for legislators, policymakers, investors, stakeholders & the public
        long-term multi-disciplinary perspectives by Freddy Hutter since 1989 - TRENDLines Research removes the noise from economic & science data to reveal the underlying trends

        ~

        TRENDLines Research's
        Covid Fatalities Projections

        covid may2022
        new
        "future deaths" figures above are updated weekly at:  www.twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa

        next monthly chart update:  June 17th 2022

        --- until next monthly composite chart update on June 17 2022, see weekly update of "future deaths" at:  www.twitter.com/TrendlinesDotCa

        OMICRON'S SUB-VARIANT WAVE MAY END NOVEMBER 2022!
        PROJECTED FUTURE FATALITIES:  86,000 WORLDWIDE
        incl:  USA 10,800 & UK 3,900 & CANADA 1,880 (incl 670 ONTARIO & 166 BC VICTIMS)

        May 20th 2022 - Based on novel coronavirus's ever-changing mortality rates in recent weeks, today's update of TRENDLines Research's Covid-19 fatalities model projects an ultimate 2020-2022 death count of 6.36 million worldwide (present toll 6.27 million + 86,000 future) incl 1,027,200 in the USA (1,016,400 toll + 10,800 future);  200,200 in the UK (196,300 toll + 3,900 future) & 42,270 in Canada (40,390 toll + 1,880 future) incl 13,790 in Ontario (13,120 toll + 670 future) & 3,564 in BC (3,398 toll + 166 future) - based on current relaxed policymaker mitigation of the Omicron sub-variants.

        Whereas previous lethal coronavirus events (MERS & SARS) were relatively short-lived due to aggressive contact tracing, misguided policymaker mitigation decisions allowed Covid-19 to become a multi-wave pandemic with a projected 35 month duration (assuming no new variants-of-concern).

        This humankind disaster stems from most jurisdictions: (a) adopting the horrific Trump strategy of premature lifting of restrictions (thrice);  (b) reluctance to require/maintain shelter-in-place;  (c) an over-reliance on vaccination programs;  (d) failure to assist vaccination in developing nations;  (e) identifiable leadership complicity in anti-mandate (eg masks, social distancing & vaccinations); & (f) virtually abandoning vigilant testing & contact tracing convention post Delta.

        These failures to isolate the original virus led to successive surges of same and founded an environment for the Alpha, Beta, Delta & Omicron (incl BA2/4/5) variants-of-concern to flourish.  Modelling reveals this event should have been only a six-month episode with 1.1 million fatalities.  Instead, policymaker hubris may have caused 5.2 million unnecessary victims worldwide.  These surplus deaths include 870K in USA, 149K in UK & 29K in Canada (incl 10K in Ontario & 2,900 in BC).

        My Post-Peak Linearization Model indicated prudent mitigation efforts had essentially suppressed Covid's first surge by mid-2020 in the UK & Canada (incl Ontario & BC.  Unfortunately, those early lock-down & shelter-in-place sacrifices proved to be in vain.  Premature relaxation of Orders and restrictions in all four jurisdictions gave rise to new surges upon each attempt at re-opening.  Just as the USA & Global models were to signal suppression in July 2021, the Delta wave overcame the gains.

        In much of the word, similar policymaker mismanagement resulted in a string of five waves (defined as seasonal outbreaks or material strain mutations):  Original, Alpha/Beta, Delta, Omicron & BA2/4/5 sub-variants and surges within those waves.

        As a "post-peak" model, no projections were generated during the strong Delta & Omicron episodes.  Surges in cases, hospitalizations, ICU and deaths since mid 2021 reigned primarily in Vax-hesitant regions.  Excepting developing nations lacking vaccination access, one might surmise there was a lot of Darwin's natural selection at work.  And fortunately, the latter are mostly right-wing qAnons.

        Originally, consensus held natural & community (vaccinated) herd immunity would kick in upon regions attaining 67% infection and/or jabs.  But failure to suppress the original strain, the subsequent spawning of variants-of-concern, broad-based vaccine hesitancy & the inability of vaccines to prevent break-thru cases upon waning immunity appear to have killed off any hope of illusive herd immunity.

        Current model runs indicate Omicron and its sub-variants will transition to endemic status June thru September.  :  late April in Ontario & Canada-wide;  early May in BC & USA;  and early June in UK & Worldwide.  Omicron's BA2 sub-variant is presently forming a 4th Covid19 Wave.  As 34% of the globe still lacks even a first jab, it is highly probable new variants-of-concern will arise this Autumn.

        See website table for archive of all my projections since April 2020.  The model's composite chart, underlying stats & analyst commentary (by Freddy Hutter) are updated monthly at:

          &  www.facebook.com/TRENDLinesResearch

        new weekly update of future deaths projections:  www.twitter.com/TRENDLinesDotCa

        WORLDWIDE
        Based on mortality trends in recent weeks, the TRENDLines Post-Peak Linearization Model projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 86,000 fatalities across the globe while transitioning to endemic status in mid July and expire in November  -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (6.27 million), an ultimate 6.36 million victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Today's daily-deaths rate (1,600) is down 89% from its January 2021 record high (14,400).  Today 64% of the world's population have at least one jab.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

        Failing a new wave, the model suggests the Covid19 pandemic is 99% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 102 million lives (7.6 billion x 67% x 2.0% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) and with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

        The 10 nations with the highest daily-deaths rate today:  USA (260), UK, Brazil, Russia, France, Canada, Thailand, South Korea, Australia & Japan.

        The model reveals 5.2 million souls (of 6.33 mil total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

        41% of worldwide victims resided in long-term care facilities.

        Worldwide
        mortality rate:  0.08% or 813 deaths/million population

        USA
        The model similarly projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 10,800 fatalities across America while transitioning to endemic status in mid June and expiring in September -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (1,016,400), an ultimate 1,027,200 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

        Today's daily-deaths rate (260) is 93% below its Jan/2021 record high (3,500).  The States with the most daily-deaths today are California (39), New York, Kansas, Pennsylvania, Georgia & Texas.

        Failing a new wave, the model suggests the USA's Covid19 pandemic is 99% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the absurd natural herd immunity policy promoted by the Trump White House would have cost 3.9 million American lives (327 million x 67% x 1.8% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

        During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the former President proposed packing the nation's churches on Easter and return to work the following day.  It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

        It marked the day everything changed.  For context of Trump's containment failure, the USA had over half of worldwide cases & deaths in 2020.  Twenty-six months later, the USA still has 16% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 16% of the today's global "active" cases & 16% of worldwide body bags.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in 20Q2.  75 million workers initiated unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term.

        The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April 2020's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.

        The model reveals reveals 870,000 souls (of 1,015,000 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

        Long-term care residents comprise 1% of the USA population but were 36% of Covid19 victims - as high as 73% in some States.  81% of fatalities were over the age of 64 and 95% were over 49.

        USA's mortality rate:  0.30% or 3,009 deaths/million -- 17th worst in world - behind Peru (0.66%), Bulgaria, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Hungary, Georgia, North Macedonia, Croatia, Czechia, Slovakia, Romania, Moldova, Lithuania, Brazil, Slovenia, Poland & Chile.

        UK
        The model projects Omicron's sub-variants (BA2/4/5) will claim yet another 3,900 fatalities across the UK while transitioning to endemic status in mid June and expiring in August -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (196,300), an ultimate 200,200 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

        The UK's wave#1 was initially suppressed back on Aug 2nd 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 750 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  The model deemed wave#1 suppressed  a second time (late May 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits.  Today's daily-deaths rate (120) is 90% below its Jan/2021 record high (1,200).

        Failing a new wave, the model suggests the UK's Covid19 pandemic is 98% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 757,000 UK lives (66 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case mortality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

        The model reveals 149K souls (of 195,650 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

        The UK comprises only 1% of global population but has 3% of the Covid19 deaths (down from 11% in April) and 4% of today's world "active" cases.

        37% of victims lived in long-term care homes.

        UK's mortality rate:  0.26% or 2,555 deaths/million (28th worst in world)

        CANADA
        The model projects Omicron's BA2 sub-variant will claim yet another 1,880 fatalities across Canada while transitioning to endemic status in September and expiring in December -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (40,390), an ultimate 42,270 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

        The model reveals Canada's wave#1 was initially suppressed on Aug 7th 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 350 and daily deaths were down to single digits.  Today's daily-deaths rate (37) is 79% below its May 2020 record high (175).

        Failing a new wave, the model suggests Canada's Covid19 pandemic is 96% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 421,000 Canadian lives (37 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

        The model reveals 29K souls (of 38,470 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

        Canadian media (CTV & CBC) annually expose nursing home neglect and under-staffing, so there's no surprise this sector saw the most confirmed cases.  69% of Covid19 victims resided or worked in long-term facilities.  88% of fatalities were over the age of 69.

        Canada's mortality rate:  0.10% or 1,021 deaths/million

        ONTARIO
        The
        model projects Omicron's BA2 sub-variant will claim yet another 670 fatalities across Ontario while transitioning to endemic status in September and expiring in December -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (13,120), an ultimate 13,790 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

        It reveals Ontario's wave#1 was initially suppressed on July 7th 2020 - when new daily cases sunk below 150 and the Province reported its third consecutive fatality-free day.  Today's daily-deaths rate (13) is 80% below its record highs (60) in May 2020 & Jan/2021.

        Failing a new wave, the model suggests Ontario's pandemic is 95% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 171,000 Ontario lives (15 million x 67% x 1.7% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

        The model reveals 10K (of 12,750 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

        Finding 66% of its Covid deaths in nursing homes, to Ontario's credit it was one of the first jurisdiction to initiate an Inquiry Commission to evaluate the crisis in long-term seniors care facilities.

        Ontario's mortality rate:  0.09% or 852 deaths/million

        BC
        The model projects Omicron's BA2 sub-variant will claim yet another 166 fatalities across the Province while transitioning to endemic status in late June and expiring in August -- based on existing policymaker mitigation.  Added to the current toll (3,398), an ultimate 3,564 victims are projected over 2020-2022.  Omicron's BA4/5 sub-variants and future variants-of-concern may inflate final numbers.

        It reveals BC's wave#1 was initially suppressed way back on June 20th 2020 - when new daily cases had dwindled to single digits and the Province reported its ninth consecutive fatality-free day.  The model deemed wave#1 suppressed  a second time (late July 2021) when once again daily-deaths hit single digits.  And a third when Delta troughed in early January 2022.  Today's daily-deaths rate (8) is down substantially from the record 21/day in December 2020.

        Failing a new wave, the model suggests BC's pandemic is 95% complete.  Troubling as today's ultimate projection may be, the alternative natural herd immunity strategy promoted by conspirators would have cost 33,500 BC lives (5 million x 67% x 1.0% Alpha/Beta case fatality rate) with no guarantee of permanent immunity.

        The model reveals 2K souls (of 3,066 total) will have perished unnecessarily due to misguided policymaker decisions to prematurely re-open.

        BC exhibits among the lowest fatality, mortality & incidence rates across Canada & the globe.  British Columbia & Washington State were the first North American regions to see confirmed cases take off.  Wise leadership quickly contained the spread, had faulty re-opening strategies, but both jurisdictions are again on paths to normality.

        Credit to BC in being among the first to mandate full vaccination for healthcare workers and bar family visitations to nursing homes and disallow care workers from attending multiple long-term residences.  Residents of BC long-term facilities comprise 68% of total fatalities.

        BC mortality rate:  0.06% or 587 deaths/million

        The TRENDLines Research POST-PEAK LINEARIZATION MODEL (PPLM)
        These six Covid19 projections are generated by TR's linearization model.  It extrapolates a jurisdiction's mortality rate after the curve's peak - particularly the most recent days & weeks.  The graph's data points move left to right chronologically above its date's cumulative death toll on the x-axis.  The intersection (asymptote) of their trend line at the x-axis indicates an estimate of the ultimate total deaths.  As daily data points are added, a high y-axis data point (high mortality rate) will shift the bottom of the trend line to the right and a higher fatalities count ... and vice versa.

        There is no medical component aside from tracking daily & cumulative fatalities.  This strictly mathematical model analyzes nuanced gradient changes in a curve's down-slope and assumes no change in gov't guidelines, orders or citizenry behaviour.  This same methodology has been one of the criteria by which TRENDLines Research has determined global & Saudi Arabia oil reserves since 2004.  On request, I can similarly chart any Nation, State, Province or Region - presented alone or with comparatives.

         
        About TRENDLines Research
        Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts; & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.  Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.


        Archive of PPL Model's Projected 2020-2022 Covid19 Fatalities

        BC
        Ontario Canada
        UK
        USA
        World
        newMay 20 2022
        3,56413,79042,270
        200,200
        1,027,200
        6.36 million
        April 8
        3,06612,75038,470
        195,650
        1,015,000
        6.33 million
        March 6
        3,19612,81038,050
        163,180
        1,071,000
        6.31 million
        February
        -- Omicron variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
        January 2022 -- Omicron variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
        Dec 18 2021
        2,48810,70031,190
        154,200
        889,000
        5.8 million
        Nov 24
        2,36510,11030,700
        150,250
        859,000
        6.1 million
        Oct 9
        2,0549,96029,200
        141,730
        773,000
        5.6 million
        September -- Delta variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
        August
        -- Delta variant surging in all 6 jurisdictions --
        July 5
        1,7789,80027,020
        128,990
        621,000
        4.4 million
        June 2
        1,8079,44027,490
        128,435
        655,000
        4,560,000
        May 3
        2,257
        8,60025,820
        128,200
        650,000
        4,320,000
        April 1
        1,668
        7,96524,070
        127,460
        584,000
        7,700,000
        March 1
        1,406
        7,27022,840
        127,100
        570,000
        2,900,000
        Feb 3
        1,317
        7,68022,260
        129,500
        520,000
        2,730,000
        Jan 18
        1,250
        7,81022,700
        102,700
        604,000
        8,950,000
        Jan 2 2021
        1,151
        5,56019,000
        139,000
        763,000
        4,400,000
        Dec 16 2020
        -
        4,22015,330
        89,000
        599,000
        3,190,000
        Nov 20
        -
        -13,400
        -396,000
        2,110,000
        Oct 20
        412
        3,54010,800
        46,500295,000
        1,970,000
        Oct 10
        374
        3,5409,840
        44,450289,000
        2,090,000
        Sept 30
        290
        3,03810,160
        44,800270,000
        1,670,000
        Sept 20
        437
        2,9479,895
        43,840266,000
        1,730,000
        Sept 10
        277
        2,9059,440
        42,200245,000
        1,440,000
        Sept 5
        274
        2,909 9,460
        42,120 267,000
        1,410,000
        Aug 30
        216
        2,9299,450
        42,230284,000
        1,380,000
        Aug 25
        217
        2,8689,370
        42,010269,000
        1,450,000
        Aug 20
        205
        2,8629,302
        41,990265,000
        1,490,000
        Aug 15
        204
        2,8519,100
        48,600418,000
        2,100,000
        Aug 10
        207
        2,8529,075
        48,800377,000
        2,450,000
        Aug 5
        205
        2,8549,070
        48,500282,000
        1,990,000
        July 30
        207
        2,8459,050
        48,200308,000
        2,040,000
        July 25
        199
        2,8439,030
        48,100239,000
        1,630,000
        July 20
        215
        2,8509,060
        48,100204,000
        1,500,000
        July 15
        200
        2,8258,940
        46,200180,000
        1,140,000
        July 10
        189 2,8208,930
        46,000175,000
        1,170,000
        July 5
        180 2,8458,910
        46,000173,000
        1,170,000
        June 30
        177 2,8908,840
        45,600161,000
        1,340,000
        June 25
        172 2,9208,860
        44,700141,000
        1,190,000
        June 21st 2020
        Actual Deaths:
        171 2,657 8,481
        42,731 122,468
        472,779
        June 20 forecasts
        for Year 2020

        170
        2,8109,000
        46,800145,000
        1,145,000
        June 16
        170
        2,9409,660
        48,900140,000
        905,000
        June 12
        172
        3,17010,200
        47,400141,000
        852,000
        June 9
        172
        3,5309,430
        49,200134,000
        640,000
        June 6
        191
        2,7709,700
        45,500127,000
        525,000
        June 3
        197
        2,5508,470
        42,500122,000
        471,000
        June 1
        216
        2,5408,370
        42,000122,000
        466,000
        May 30
        225
        2,5307,990
        41,600121,000
        428,000
        May 28
        217
        2,4807,870
        41,100119,000
        420,000
        May 26
        225
        2,3907,590
        41,600119,000
        420,000
        May 24
        224

        7,470

        120,000
        420,000
        May 22
        223

        7,300

        117,000
        409,000
        May 20
        196

        7,040

        111,000
        403,000
        May 18
        193

        7,135

        110,000
        406,000
        May 16
        180

        7,125

        111,000
        396,000
        May 14
        174

        7,025

        109,000
        381,000
        May 12
        189

        6,850

        105,000
        386,000
        May 10
        222

        6,900

        116,000
        393,000
        May 8
        183

        6,860

        119,000
        339,000
        May 6
        202

        6,475

        103,000
        352,000
        May 4
        200

        6,000

        95,000
        386,000
        May 2
        205

        5,900

        117,000
        380,000
        Apr 30 2020
        238

        5,120

        80,000
        380,000
        Apr 28 forecasts
        for June 21st 2020
        176

        3,960

        70,500
        314,000

        TRUMP-VIRUS THRUST USA ECONOMY into TECHNICAL RECESSION in MARCH 2020

          Dec 18th 2021 update - So how did the USA embark on this historic crisis?  Here's a clue:  During a White House Rose Garden virtual town hall on March 25th 2020, the President stated to the Fox News host:

        "You'll have packed churches all over the country.  It would be a resurrection of biblical proportions.  I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter.  It would be a beautiful thing. "Our country has to get back to work, otherwise it's going to be very hard to start it up again.  We can't lose the advantage we have."

        It was on this precise day America was infected with "the TrumpVirus".  On that day the USA had only 4% of global Covid deaths - apropos considering the nation has 4% of the world's population.

        But it marked the day everything changed.  And leads one to ask why does the USA have 23% of world's cumulative Covid cases, 56% of the today's global "active" cases & 24% of worldwide body bags?  The answer is founded in its citizenry electing a reality show celebrity as its President.  This business con man's failure to mitigate Covid-19's spread runs the length of his stay in office.

        Albeit Obama's Homeland Security Chief (Lisa Monaco) briefed the incoming transition team with a robust "playbook", un-indicted Individual-1 shut down the White House's National Security Council's Pandemic Unit in 2018.  Dr Dennis Carol's Predict Program was cancelled by the White House in 2019.  And 'cuz their very public warnings were rocking the stock markets in Feb/2020, CDC's renowned disease experts Sarah Messonnier & Dr Bright were abruptly reassigned.

        This prudent planning team was replaced by a muse "this flu will just go away with warm April sunshine".  After his "miracle" failed, the self-proclaimed "extremely stable genius" offered his cult following hydroxychloroquine, disinfectant injections and internal UV light remedies.

        It was soon evident many continued to drink the Kool-Aid (or bleach?).  Prior to flattening their curves, mostly "red States" relaxed physical distancing, stay-at-home policies, masking & contact tracing.

        From the onset it was evident Trump's "Opening Up America Again" campaign was rooted in politics.  Despite his bravado, to that point in time he failed to attain Obama's multiple 5% GDP growth rates.  2020's Q1/Q2/Q3 were his last-kick-at-the-can - hence his nonsensical dampened pandemic rhetoric thru January, February & March.  With Q1 going negative (-5%), he knew a large part of his Nov/2020 Election demise rested on Q2 & Q3 GDP.

        So the motive for his March 25th plea (above) for Easter church goers to return to work April 14th is clear.  As a ratings savvy guy, he knew Q2 GDP (for Apr/May/June) would be announced in late July (with Aug27th & Sept30th revisions).  The Q3 GDP announcement was Oct29th - a mere five days prior to Election Day (Nov3rd).

        And evidently, he's in huge trouble for failing to contain Covid-19.  The uncontained TrumpVirus resulted in GDP crashing at a historic -31% pace in Q2.  And of the 75 million workers initiating unemployment claims due to the pandemic during his term, 2.5 million remain on the rolls (1.7 mil pre-pandemic).  With no sign of his boasted V-shaped Recovery, Individual-1 tried some desperate manoeuvres ... like forcing schools to re-open ... attempting to postpone the Election ... sabotaging the postal system for an electoral advantage ... and challenging those mail-in ballots and finally ... recruiting nationalist militia to overthrow the Capitol on January 6th.

        The President caused a TrumpVirus resurgence only for the purpose of salvaging his legacy.  He desperately wanted to avoid voters going to the polls realizing The Donald (alone) was at fault for April's 22% U-6 Unemployment Rate & plunging the U.S. economy into its deepest crash (-31% GDP) ever - including the Great Depression.

        The TRENDLines Recession Indicator was the first macro-economic model to accurately reveal the magnitude of the Great Recession in real time.  In the 2013 chart below, TRI was forecasting a USA austerity crisis to occur in 2024 due to an uncontrolled $26 trillion National Debt.  But that day was pre-empted by a black swan event:  the TrumpVirus - a crisis of epic proportions in mismanagement, lack of containment & mitigation failures - resulting in 815,000 fatalities (thus far).

        Despite interventions by the Federal Reserve via its monetary policy tool box and fiscal policy injections of trillions of dollars by Congress, it is probable the  American economy will suffer long-term consequences.  April's "real" Unemployment Rate (U-6) of 22% was the worst since the 26% high (1933) in the Great Depression (see chart below).  Q2GDP plunged 31% (annualized rate), dwarfing the 2008 & 1980 downturns and anything seen in the great Depression.

        TRI USA long

        the traditional definitions

        TECHNICAL RECESSION:  Avg Gross Domestic Product growth rate (GDP) declines 0% to 2% for at least 2 Quarters
        SEVERE RECESSION:  Avg GDP declines 2% to 4% for at least 4 Qtrs (1 yr)
        DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines 4% to 8% for at least 8 Qtrs (2 yrs)
        GREATER DEPRESSION:  Avg GDP declines over 8% for at least 16 Qtrs (4 yrs)

        RECOVERY PERIOD:  monthly/quarterly nominal GDP expanding but remains below pre-contraction peak
        EXPANSION PERIOD: 
        monthly/quarterly nominal GDP finally exceeds pre-contraction peak

        STRUCTURAL GDP (TRIX):  Real GDP adjusted for Fiscal Policy Deficit/Surplus effects to reveal growth rate of underlying economy
         
        UPPER CLASS:  family wealth (net worth) is among the top 1% of society
        MIDDLE CLASS:  family income is among the top 10% of society
        WORKING CLASS:  all the rest...

        U-6 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE:  Marginally attached workers are persons who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the recent past.  Discouraged workers  a subset of marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not looking currently for a job.  Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule.

        real unemployment rates





        START
        FINISH




        ~

        send email to Freddy Hutter with questions, comments or navigation corrections with respect to this web site
         Last modified:  May 20, 2022  ~  (? 1989-2022 TRENDLines Research)


        keywords:  projection prediction forecast indicate guess estimate how many people will die perish in bc british columbia canada canadians usa americans united states globe world worldwide earth result from corona virus covid-19 pandemic flu death toll daily total cumulative fatalities perish victims trendlines freddy hutter CDC IHME model pplm post-peak linearization social physical distancing


        TRENDLines Research's

        YUKON PROTOCOL
        for the UN's
        CLIMATE FINANCE DELIVERY PLAN
        & its GREEN CLIMATE FUND

        Nov 24th 2021 - TRENDLines Research published its "Yukon Protocol" on Aug 23 2009 to provide guidance to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) and policymakers of developed nations in establishing equitable contributions wrt the $100 billion Climate Finance Delivery Plan -- reaffirmed at COP26-Glasgow-2021.

        As background, after each of the UN's IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports, developing nations begrudged demands on them to forego economical coal, oil and gases as their gracious part in "saving the planet".

        Their objections are founded in the perceived unfairness that while today's wealthy nations achieved their status in part via industrialization under a high emissions regime, the latter has undergone an epiphany of sorts and so to suppress imminent climate change due to past sins, they now chastise developing nations for utilizing those same efficient fossil fuel resources to foster their growth.

        So as a fairness measure to offset the cost burden of low emission infrastructure in young economies, COP15-Copenhagen-2009 proposed a Green Climate Fund (GCF) from which they can draw upon -- and to be funded by mature nations.

        Subsequent COP's (Conference Of the Parties) established the GCF, but a dozen years on, donor nations continue a struggle to find equitable contribution levels.

        TR's Yukon Protocol suggests a truly relevant apportionment of the $100 billion Climate Finance Delivery Plan rests in setting national contributions in accordance to each country's share of cumulative co2 emissions.

        The Yukon Protocol's latest methodology divides up the $100 billion Climate Finance target among the top 100 co2 emitters using their known prorated share of cumulative emissions (since Year 1750).  Said 100 are responsible for 97% of total emissions for this period.  The remaining 114 nations are candidates for GCF grants & loans.

        With full compliance, annual contributions within the Protocol range from $31 million assessed against Jamaica - the lowest of the 100 top emitters (0.03%) to $25.65 billion due from the largest - the USA (25.65%).  Over 2/3 of the target is achieved levying the top ten emitters.

        Credit to CDIAC, GCP & OWID acknowledged as data sources.

        link to 5pg printable PDF


        YUKON PROTOCOL FOR CLIMATE FINANCE DELIVERY PLAN


        Top 100
         emitter nations

        funding proportion based on cumulative co2 emissions


        assessed share of
        $100 billion target


        emitter rating

         

         

         

         

        United States

        25.65%

        $25,651,095,494

        1

        China

        13.76%

        $13,755,684,167

        2

        Russia

        7.12%

        $7,120,711,038

        3

        Germany

        5.75%

        $5,746,176,106

        4

        United Kingdom

        4.87%

        $4,867,713,931

        5

        Japan

        4.04%

        $4,040,926,002

        6

        India

        3.25%

        $3,245,142,621

        7

        France

        2.39%

        $2,387,350,145

        8

        Canada

        2.07%

        $2,066,969,822

        9

        Ukraine

        1.85%

        $1,849,937,991

        10

        Poland

        1.73%

        $1,725,919,802

        11

        Italy

        1.52%

        $1,519,222,819

        12

        South Africa

        1.29%

        $1,291,856,139

        13

        Mexico

        1.24%

        $1,240,181,893

        14

        Iran

        1.15%

        $1,147,168,251

        15

        Australia

        1.14%

        $1,136,833,402

        16

        South Korea

        1.06%

        $1,064,489,458

        17

        Brazil

        0.95%

        $950,806,118

        18

        Saudi Arabia

        0.93%

        $930,136,420

        19

        Spain

        0.92%

        $919,801,571

        20

        Indonesia

        0.85%

        $847,457,627

        21

        Kazakhstan

        0.84%

        $837,122,778

        22

        Belgium

        0.78%

        $775,113,683

        23

        Czechia

        0.74%

        $744,109,136

        24

        Netherlands

        0.72%

        $723,439,438

        25

        Turkey

        0.65%

        $651,095,494

        26

        Taiwan

        0.54%

        $537,412,154

        27

        Romania

        0.53%

        $527,077,305

        28

        Argentina

        0.52%

        $516,742,456

        29

        Venezuela

        0.49%

        $485,737,908

        30

        Thailand

        0.44%

        $444,398,512

        31

        Uzbekistan

        0.41%

        $413,393,964

        32

        Egypt

        0.38%

        $382,389,417

        33

        Malaysia

        0.36%

        $361,719,719

        34

        Austria

        0.34%

        $341,050,021

        35

        Belarus

        0.33%

        $330,715,172

        36

        North Korea

        0.32%

        $320,380,322

        37

        Hungary

        0.31%

        $310,045,473

        38

        Pakistan

        0.31%

        $310,045,473

        38

        Sweden

        0.31%

        $310,045,473

        38

        United Arab Emirates

        0.29%

        $289,375,775

        41

        Algeria

        0.28%

        $279,040,926

        42

        Iraq

        0.28%

        $279,040,926

        43

        Denmark

        0.26%

        $258,371,228

        44

        Greece

        0.25%

        $248,036,379

        45

        Bulgaria

        0.24%

        $237,701,530

        46

        Nigeria

        0.24%

        $237,701,530

        46

        Slovakia

        0.24%

        $237,701,530

        46

        Vietnam

        0.23%

        $227,366,680

        49

        Colombia

        0.21%

        $206,696,982

        50

        Philippines

        0.21%

        $206,696,982

        50

        Finland

        0.20%

        $196,362,133

        52

        Switzerland

        0.19%

        $186,027,284

        53

        Chile

        0.18%

        $175,692,435

        54

        Kuwait

        0.18%

        $175,692,435

        54

        Serbia

        0.18%

        $175,692,435

        54

        Azerbaijan

        0.17%

        $165,357,586

        57

        Norway

        0.17%

        $165,357,586

        57

        Portugal

        0.17%

        $165,357,586

        57

        Turkmenistan

        0.17%

        $165,357,586

        57

        Israel

        0.14%

        $144,687,888

        61

        Ireland

        0.13%

        $134,353,038

        62

        Singapore

        0.13%

        $134,353,038

        62

        Libya

        0.12%

        $124,018,189

        64

        Qatar

        0.12%

        $124,018,189

        64

        New Zealand

        0.11%

        $113,683,340

        66

        Peru

        0.11%

        $113,683,340

        66

        Syria

        0.11%

        $113,683,340

        66

        Cuba

        0.10%

        $103,348,491

        69

        Hong Kong

        0.10%

        $103,348,491

        69

        Morocco

        0.10%

        $103,348,491

        69

        Bangladesh

        0.09%

        $93,013,642

        72

        Estonia

        0.09%

        $93,013,642

        72

        Trinidad & Tobago

        0.09%

        $93,013,642

        72

        Lithuania

        0.08%

        $82,678,793

        75

        Croatia

        0.07%

        $72,343,944

        76

        Ecuador

        0.07%

        $72,343,944

        76

        Oman

        0.07%

        $72,343,944

        76

        Bosnia & Herzegovina

        0.06%

        $62,009,095

        79

        Georgia

        0.06%

        $62,009,095

        79

        Moldova

        0.06%

        $62,009,095

        79

        Bahrain

        0.05%

        $51,674,246

        82

        Kyrgyzstan

        0.05%

        $51,674,246

        82

        Latvia

        0.05%

        $51,674,246

        82

        Luxembourg

        0.05%

        $51,674,246

        82

        Slovenia

        0.05%

        $51,674,246

        82

        Tunisia

        0.05%

        $51,674,246

        82

        Zimbabwe

        0.05%

        $51,674,246

        82

        Angola

        0.04%

        $41,339,396

        89

        Armenia

        0.04%

        $41,339,396

        89

        Dominican Republic

        0.04%

        $41,339,396

        89

        Jordan

        0.04%

        $41,339,396

        89

        Lebanon

        0.04%

        $41,339,396

        89

        Mongolia

        0.04%

        $41,339,396

        89

        North Macedonia

        0.04%

        $41,339,396

        89

        Yemen

        0.04%

        $41,339,396

        89

        Bolivia

        0.03%

        $31,004,547

        97

        Curacao

        0.03%

        $31,004,547

        97

        Guatemala

        0.03%

        $31,004,547

        97

        Jamaica

        0.03%

        $31,004,547

        97

         

        100.00%

         

        assessed nations:

        ver 21.1116

        100.00%

        $100,000,000,000

        100

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

        114 Recipient Entities:

         

         

         

         

         

         

         

        Kenya

         

         

         

        Myanmar

         

         

         

        Sri Lanka

         

         

         

        Sudan

         

         

         

        Tajikistan

         

         

         

        Albania

         

         

         

        Brunei

         

         

         

        Cote d'Ivoire

         

         

         

        Cyprus

         

         

         

        Gabon

         

         

         

        Ghana

         

         

         

        Honduras

         

         

         

        Panama

         

         

         

        Uruguay

         

         

         

        Afghanistan

         

         

         

        Bahamas

         

         

         

        Benin

         

         

         

        Botswana

         

         

         

        Cambodia

         

         

         

        Cameroon

         

         

         

        Costa Rica

         

         

         

        Democratic Republic of Congo

         

         

         

        El Salvador

         

         

         

        Equatorial Guinea

         

         

         

        Ethiopia

         

         

         

        Guyana

         

         

         

        Iceland

         

         

         

        Kosovo

         

         

         

        Laos

         

         

         

        Madagascar

         

         

         

        Malta

         

         

         

        Mauritius

         

         

         

        Montenegro

         

         

         

        Mozambique

         

         

         

        Nepal

         

         

         

        New Caledonia

         

         

         

        Nicaragua

         

         

         

        Papua New Guinea

         

         

         

        Paraguay

         

         

         

        Senegal

         

         

         

        Suriname

         

         

         

        Tanzania

         

         

         

        Uganda

         

         

         

        Zambia

         

         

         

        Andorra

         

         

         

        Anguilla

         

         

         

        Antigua & Barbuda

         

         

         

        Aruba

         

         

         

        Barbados

         

         

         

        Belize

         

         

         

        Bermuda

         

         

         

        Bhutan

         

         

         

        Bonaire Sint Eustatius & Saba

         

         

         

        British Virgin Islands

         

         

         

        Burkina Faso

         

         

         

        Burundi

         

         

         

        Cape Verde

         

         

         

        Central African Republic

         

         

         

        Chad

         

         

         

        Comoros

         

         

         

        Congo

         

         

         

        Cook Islands

         

         

         

        Djibouti

         

         

         

        Dominica

         

         

         

        Eritrea

         

         

         

        Eswatini

         

         

         

        Faeroe Islands

         

         

         

        Fiji

         

         

         

        French Polynesia

         

         

         

        Gambia

         

         

         

        Greenland

         

         

         

        Grenada

         

         

         

        Guinea

         

         

         

        Guinea-Bissau

         

         

         

        Haiti

         

         

         

        Kiribati

         

         

         

        Lesotho

         

         

         

        Liberia

         

         

         

        Liechtenstein

         

         

         

        Macao

         

         

         

        Malawi

         

         

         

        Maldives

         

         

         

        Mali

         

         

         

        Marshall Islands

         

         

         

        Mauritania

         

         

         

        Micronesia

         

         

         

        Montserrat

         

         

         

        Namibia

         

         

         

        Nauru

         

         

         

        Niger

         

         

         

        Niue

         

         

         

        Palau

         

         

         

        Palestine

         

         

         

        Rwanda

         

         

         

        Saint Helena

         

         

         

        Saint Kitts & Nevis

         

         

         

        Saint Lucia

         

         

         

        Saint Pierre & Miquelon

         

         

         

        Saint Vincent & Grenadines

         

         

         

        Samoa

         

         

         

        Sao Tome & Principe

         

         

         

        Seychelles

         

         

         

        Sierra Leone

         

         

         

        Sint Maarten (Dutch)

         

         

         

        Solomon Islands

         

         

         

        Somalia

         

         

         

        South Sudan

         

         

         

        Timor

         

         

         

        Togo

         

         

         

        Tonga

         

         

         

        Turks & Caicos Islands

         

         

         

        Tuvalu

         

         

         

        Vanuatu

         

         

         

        Wallis & Futuna

         

         

         

         

        About TRENDLines Research

        Data analyst Freddy Hutter of Vancouver Island BC has developed models & methodologies for macro-economic charts & guidance for policy-makers, stakeholders. legislators, investors, educators, and the public with a long term multi-disciplinary perspective since 1989.  TRENDLines removes the noise in (economic) data to reveal the underlying trends.  Specialties include:  Recession Indicators for Canada, USA & China;  Realty Bubble Indicators for Canada, USA, UK & Australia;  Global Oil Production & Price Component analysis/forecasts;  & national, provincial Party & Presidential political election projections.  Covid-19 ultimate deaths forecasting is the most recent endeavour.



        ~




        ~

        • the FreeVenue chart-of-the-day is a public posting of guidance (charts, tables & analysis)

        • Trendlines Research has been publishing charts & analysis relating to Peak Oil, Macro-Economics, Climate Change & Political Election Projections since 1989.  Data analyst Freddy Hutter's media and professional commentary on these issues commenced in 1973

        • all charts, tables & text ?1989-2021 all rights reserved TRENDLines Research 

        ~

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